2026 VMA Nominations & Predictions: Who Will Win?

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The 2026 VMAs will air live on CBS and simulcast on MTV on Sunday, September 27, from 7:30 to 9:30 PM ET (4:30 to 6:30 PM PT). The show will stream on Paramount+ in the US and become available globally the next day. This marks the first time the VMAs have returned to Los Angeles since 2017, with the ceremony held at the Peacock Theater.

Fan voting is open now through September 25 at 6 PM ET across 13 categories. Voting for Best New Artist stays open through the live broadcast.

Video of the Year

• Ariana Grande, "hate that i made you love me"
• Bruno Mars, "I Just Might"
• GENER8ION, "STORM starring Yung Lean"
• Madonna, "Confessions II – The Film"
• Sabrina Carpenter, "Tears"
• Taylor Swift, "The Fate of Ophelia"

Prediction: Madonna, "Confessions II – The Film"

The most talked-about video of the year, more so a music film in its own right. Directed by TORSO (David Toro and Solomon Chase), the 13-minute continuous visual runs through the first six tracks of Confessions II, including "I Feel So Free," "Good for the Soul," "One Step Away," "Bring Your Love," "Danceteria," and "Read My Lips," shot over six months across London, Los Angeles, and New York. Madonna is shown being pursued by a camera-wielding "SWAT team," moving through a forest rave, a nightclub, and a packed bathroom dance party stacked with cameos, including Benedict Cumberbatch, Julia Garner, Kate Moss, Gwendoline Christie, and Sabrina Carpenter, who joins her for their duet “Bring Your Love.” It premiered at the Tribeca Festival before landing on YouTube, and Entertainment Weekly called it her boldest and best work in years. With a fully realized storyline and seamless transitions between songs, it's hard to argue there's a more ambitious entry in the category.

Artist of the Year

• Ariana Grande
• Bruno Mars
• Madonna
• Morgan Wallen
• Sabrina Carpenter
• Taylor Swift

Prediction: Madonna

Madonna took over 2026 with her return. Confessions II, her 15th studio album and the sequel to 2005's Confessions on a Dance Floor, reunited her with original producer Stuart Price and debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard 200 with 134,000 equivalent album units, her 10th chart-topping album and her best sales week since 2015. The promotional run was inescapable: a surprise Coachella appearance, a Times Square concert, the Tribeca premiere of the Confessions II film, and a headlining slot alongside BTS and Shakira at the World Cup halftime show. No other nominee dominated the year's pop culture conversation as thoroughly or as consistently.

Song of the Year

• BTS, "Swim"
• Ella Langley, "Choosin' Texas"
• HUNTR/X (EJAE, Audrey Nuna, REI AMI), "Golden"
• Madonna & Sabrina Carpenter, "Bring Your Love"
• Olivia Dean, "Man I Need"
• PinkPantheress, "Stateside + Zara Larsson"
• RAYE, "WHERE IS MY HUSBAND!"

Prediction: Ella Langley, "Choosin' Texas"

This is the toughest category of the night, packed with genuine hits, but the numbers point to Langley. "Choosin' Texas" is spending its 18th week at No. 1 on the Hot 100 as of mid-August, and it made her the first female artist in the chart's history to simultaneously top the Hot 100, Hot Country Songs, and Country Airplay charts with the same song. It is still climbing months after release. The closest thing to a rival is HUNTR/X's Oscar-winning "Golden," from KPop Demon Hunters, which has real staying power of its own but is the oldest song in the category and has already had its commercial peak. "Choosin' Texas" is currently the biggest song here by the numbers, and it isn't close.

Best New Artist

• Bella Kay
• CORTIS
• Magnus Ferrell
• Malcolm Todd
• Myles Smith
• Sienna Spiro
• Stella Lefty

Prediction: Sienna Spiro

Spiro had a massive year behind her debut album, Visitor, which opened at No. 9 on the Billboard 200 the same week Madonna's Confessions II claimed No. 1. Her single "Die on This Hill" reached the Top 20 of the Hot 100, and she followed it with "Material Lover," written exclusively for The Devil Wears Prada 2 soundtrack. She also sold out a US headlining tour along the way. A close second is Malcolm Todd, who has built real momentum off his 2025 self-titled debut album, but Spiro's run across charts, film, and touring gives her the edge.

Best Collaboration

• Clipse, Kendrick Lamar, Pusha T & Malice, "Chains & Whips"
• French Montana x Max B, "Ever Since U Left Me"
• Madonna & Sabrina Carpenter, "Bring Your Love"
• PinkPantheress, "Stateside + Zara Larsson"
• Shakira & Burna Boy, "Dai Dai"
• Teyana Taylor & Lucky Daye, "Hard Part"

Prediction: PinkPantheress, "Stateside + Zara Larsson"

"Stateside" peaked at No. 7 on the Hot 100, becoming a Top 10 hit and the first Global 200 entry for both artists, a run that got a major boost after figure skater Alysa Liu skated to the song during an exhibition performance at the 2026 Winter Olympics. The Charlotte Rutherford-directed video sets PinkPantheress and Larsson up as mannequins in facing storefront windows, each styled in the aesthetic of their own era, PinkPantheress' tartan-and-red Fancy That world against Larsson's sequined, sun-soaked Midnight Sun universe. Shakira & Burna Boy's "Dai Dai" is the only real competition, though it plays more like an attempt to recapture the "Waka Waka" magic than a moment that stands fully on its own.

Best Pop

• Ariana Grande, "hate that i made you love me"
• Charli xcx, "SS26"
• LISA, "Dream feat. Kentaro Sakaguchi"
• Olivia Rodrigo, "drop dead"
• Sabrina Carpenter, "House Tour"
• Tate McRae, "Nobody's Girl"
• Taylor Swift, "The Fate of Ophelia"

Prediction: Toss-up between Taylor Swift, "The Fate of Ophelia," and Ariana Grande, "hate that i made you love me"

Both are the two biggest commercial hits in this category, and both landed to more divided critical response than their chart numbers suggest. "hate that i made you love me," directed by Christian Breslauer, opens with Justin Long burying Grande's character, only for her ghost to haunt him through a fiery car crash, a house fire, and a diner full of patrons who all look like her, before he returns to the grave to find her standing over him with a shovel. "The Fate of Ophelia," directed by Swift herself, reimagines Hamlet's Ophelia with a happier ending tied to her relationship with Travis Kelce, with the aesthetic of The Life of a Showgirl all over it. Between two hits critics picked apart while audiences kept streaming, this one is genuinely too close to call.

Best Hip-Hop

• Cardi B ft. Kehlani, "Safe"
• Don Toliver, "E85"
• Drake, "Janice STFU"
• Megan Thee Stallion, "LOVER GIRL"
• Travis Scott, "DUMBO"
• Tyler, The Creator, "SUGAR ON MY TONGUE"

Prediction: Tyler, The Creator, "SUGAR ON MY TONGUE"

Tyler knows how to build a world and a character for the camera, and this self-directed video is one of his most ambitious yet. Set in a stark, tiled room, it opens with him trying to win over a woman across the room before the scene erupts into a full-on rave, with surreal, provocative imagery throughout that critics called some of his most creative work yet. It comes off Don't Tap the Glass, his fourth album to debut at No. 1 on the Billboard 200. Megan Thee Stallion's "LOVER GIRL" is the closest challenger, a tightly choreographed video built around her relationship with Klay Thompson, but Tyler's world-building edges her out here.

Best R&B

• Bruno Mars, "I Just Might"
• Chris Brown, "It Depends/Obvious"
• Dave & Tems, "Raindance"
• Justin Bieber, "YUKON"
• Kehlani, "Folded"
• Mariah the Scientist & Kali Uchis, "Is It a Crime"

Prediction: Kehlani, "Folded"

"Folded" is one of the biggest R&B hits of the decade so far, becoming Kehlani's first song to crack the Hot 100's top 10. Directed by City James, the video opens with Kehlani behind the counter at a dry cleaner called Nini's Fluff & Fold before moving into a dark, water-soaked back room, where she dances and spins atop a rotating clothing rack between costume changes. Fans singled out the choreography as some of her best work yet, and the visual anchors her self-titled fifth album. A close second is Dave & Tems' "Raindance," shot in Lagos with dinner scenes and beach walks, capturing the intimate feel of the song.

Best Alternative

• Geese, "Taxes"
• mgk & Fred Durst, "FIX UR FACE"
• Noah Kahan, "The Great Divide"
• Olivia Rodrigo, "the cure"
• SOMBR, "Homewrecker"
• Tame Impala, "Dracula"
• twenty one pilots, "Drag Path"

Prediction: Olivia Rodrigo, "the cure"

"the cure" is the thesis statement of Rodrigo's album you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love, and Rodrigo herself has called it her favorite song she's ever written. Directed by Cat Solen and Jaime Gerin, the video casts her as a nurse pacing the halls of a hospital, hunting for a cure to her own heartbreak, only to end up as the patient herself, hooked up to a heart machine as multiple red yarn threads unravel from her body. The set was built almost entirely by hand: cardboard walls, a life-sized cardboard guitar, a motorized animatronic heart with a felt skin, and beakers with liquid made from puppet-controlled beads. The video ends with the camera pulling back to reveal the entire hospital was a miniature diorama, which the life-sized Rodrigo picks up and crushes underfoot in a single, meticulously rehearsed take.

Best Dance

Best Dance returns to the VMAs for the first time in seven years.

• Bebe Rexha & Faithless, "New Religion"
• Harry Styles, "Aperture"
• Lady Gaga & Doechii, "RUNAWAY"
• Madonna, "Confessions II – The Film"
• PinkPantheress, "Stateside + Zara Larsson"
• Slayyyter, "DANCE…"
• Tate McRae, "Nobody's Girl"

Prediction: Madonna, "Confessions II – The Film"

After seven years without this category, the win should go to the video that most literally calls people back to the dance floor, and that's Madonna. It's a stacked field, though. Lady Gaga & Doechii's "Runway," directed by Parris Goebel for The Devil Wears Prada 2 soundtrack, is camp at its highest level set in a ballroom-meets-editorial fantasy world. Slayyyter's "DANCE…" is the darkest, most seductive cut off Worst Girl in America and stays locked into her album's moody visual identity. Bebe Rexha & Faithless' "New Religion" marks Bebe's return to the dance-pop lane she's always done best. Any of them could realistically take this after seven years without the category, but Confessions II is still the video that best embodies why it exists.

Best Latin

• Anitta with Shakira, "Choka Choka"
• Bad Bunny, "NUEVAYoL"
• Fuerza Regida, "TU SANCHO"
• KAROL G, "Papasito"
• Rosalía ft. Yahritza Y Su Esencia, "La Perla"
• Ryan Castro, Kapo & GANGSTA, "LA VILLA"
• Shakira & Burna Boy, "Dai Dai"

Prediction: Bad Bunny, "NUEVAYoL"

"NUEVAYoL" is the opening track off Debí Tirar Más Fotos, which won Album of the Year at the 2026 Grammys, and Bad Bunny performed it during his historic, primarily Spanish-language Super Bowl LX halftime show. Directed by Renell Medrano and shot partly at Bronx Community College, the video is a celebration of Nuyorican identity, opening with Bad Bunny heading to a quinceañera and moving through street party scenes, including a cameo from real-life Bronx nightlife fixture Toñita. It builds to him saluting from the Statue of Liberty draped in the Puerto Rican flag, an homage to a 1977 nationalist protest at the same site, before cutting to a group huddled around a radio playing a deepfake of Donald Trump apologizing to immigrants. Released deliberately on July 4, it's one of the most pointed statements of Puerto Rican pride of the year. Rosalía and Shakira & Burna Boy both have strong contenders in this category, but it's tough to take this one from the reigning king of Latin pop.

Best K-Pop

• BLACKPINK, "JUMP"
• BTS, "SWIM"
• CORTIS, "REDRED"
• KATSEYE, "PINKY UP"
• LE SSERAFIM feat. j-hope of BTS, "SPAGHETTI"
• LISA, "Dream feat. Kentaro Sakaguchi"

Prediction: KATSEYE, "PINKY UP"

BTS, KATSEYE, and BLACKPINK all have genuinely massive names in this category, but BLACKPINK has the weakest shot. "JUMP" faced heavy backlash over its apparent use of AI-generated visuals and lack of live choreography, with many fans calling it one of the group's worst videos to date. BTS's "SWIM," shot against the ocean in Lisbon and featuring actress Lili Reinhart, already won Song of the Summer at the 2026 American Music Awards. But KATSEYE has its own award-season momentum: two Grammy nominations this year, including Best New Artist, and a telecast performance, even though the "Gnarly" set itself split reactions online. "PINKY UP" turns a parking lot and waiting room into the group's playground and marks their first video as a quintet since Manon Bannerman's hiatus. Between the two, KATSEYE's Grammy nod and the more purely fun video give them the win.

Best Country

• Ella Langley, "Choosin' Texas"
• Kacey Musgraves, "Dry Spell"
• Lainey Wilson, "Somewhere Over Laredo"
• Luke Combs, "Back in the Saddle"
• Shaboozey, "Cowgirl"
• Stella Lefty, "Boston"
• Tucker Wetmore, "Brunette"

Prediction: Ella Langley, "Choosin' Texas"

No contest here. "Choosin' Texas" has spent 18 weeks at No. 1 on the Hot 100 so far, tying some of the biggest chart runs in the song's history, and it remains the most obvious win of the entire night. The video, co-directed by Langley, Wales Toney, and Caylee Robillard and shot at Fort Worth's historic Stagecoach Ballroom, casts Langley and Luke Grimes as a couple driving toward an old flame in Abilene, with Kaitlin Butts warning that "Texas has a way of keeping what's hers" before Langley hitches a ride out with Miranda Lambert, who plays the bar band's frontwoman. Shaboozey's "Cowgirl" is the only nominee with a shot at pulling off an upset, given he already shares the record for longest-running Hot 100 No. 1 with "A Bar Song (Tipsy)," but even that history isn't enough to overcome Langley's ongoing, record-setting run.

The categories below are juried, not decided by fan vote, so no prediction is included.

Best Direction

• Ariana Grande, "hate that i made you love me"
• Bruno Mars, "I Just Might"
• GENER8ION, "STORM starring Yung Lean"
• Madonna, "Confessions II – The Film"
• Sabrina Carpenter, "House Tour"
• Taylor Swift, "Opalite"

Best Art Direction

• Charli xcx, "SS26"
• Lady Gaga & Doechii, "RUNAWAY"
• Madonna, "Confessions II – The Film"
• PinkPantheress, "Stateside + Zara Larsson"
• SOMBR, "My Body Isn't Ready"
• Taylor Swift, "The Fate of Ophelia"

Best Cinematography

• A$AP Rocky, "PUNK ROCKY"
• Ariana Grande, "hate that i made you love me"
• LISA, "Dream feat. Kentaro Sakaguchi"
• Madonna, "Confessions II – The Film"
• Shaboozey, "Cowgirl"
• Taylor Swift, "The Fate of Ophelia"

Best Editing

• Ariana Grande, "hate that i made you love me"
• Bruno Mars, "I Just Might"
• LISA, "Dream feat. Kentaro Sakaguchi"
• Madonna, "Confessions II – The Film"
• Sabrina Carpenter, "House Tour"
• Taylor Swift, "The Fate of Ophelia"

Best Choreography

• GENER8ION, "STORM starring Yung Lean"
• Harry Styles, "Dance No More"
• KATSEYE, "PINKY UP"
• Madonna, "Confessions II – The Film"
• Tate McRae, "Nobody's Girl"
• Taylor Swift, "The Fate of Ophelia"

Best Visual Effects

• Ariana Grande, "hate that i made you love me"
• JISOO X ZAYN, "Eyes Closed"
• Madonna, "Confessions II – The Film"
• PinkPantheress, "Stateside + Zara Larsson"
• RAYE ft. Hans Zimmer, "Click Clack Symphony."
• Taylor Swift, "The Fate of Ophelia"

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