2026 Grammys: Predictions, Snubs, & Surprises

The Grammys’ eligibility is a bit different than other award shows that award based on releases during a calendar year from January to December. This year’s eligibility window covered music released between August 31, 2024, and August 30, 2025. To qualify, submissions had to meet commercial release standards and fit established genre definitions. 

Here’s how the voting works: voting members of the Recording Academy—including artists, producers, and engineers—could vote in up to ten genre-specific categories and all general field categories, such as Album, Record, and Song of the Year, as well as Best New Artist. Notably, the Academy broadened its voting body this year by inviting Latin Grammy members, increasing representation for Spanish-language music across major fields.

Let’s get into the nominations this year, tell you who we think will win, who was nominated to our surprise, and who was snubbed. 

Album of the Year

Nominees: Bad Bunny, Justin Bieber, Sabrina Carpenter, Clipse, Lady Gaga, Kendrick Lamar, Leon Thomas, and Tyler, the Creator.

Prediction: Bad Bunny is the predicted winner. His album DeBÍ TiRAR MáS FOToS made history as the first Spanish-language album nominated in this category and benefits from new Latin Grammy voter inclusion this year. Meanwhile, pop and rap votes are likely to be split between Bieber, Carpenter, Gaga, Kendrick, Clipse, and Tyler. Leon Thomas is a new artist, and his chances of winning without strong commercial backing are weak.

• Surprise: Clipse return with a critically loved but commercially modest comeback that landed them in AOTY, making three rap albums in this category
• Snub: The Weeknd (Hurry Up Tomorrow), Lorde (Virgin), Amaarae (Black Star), and FKA twigs (EUSEXUA) were all left out. All critically acclaimed works, and The Weeknd’s snub is the biggest shock, after the Grammys reconciled with him after his boycott due to getting snubbed for After Hours

Record of the Year / Song of the Year

Overlapping nominees: “DtMF” (Bad Bunny), “Manchild” (Sabrina Carpenter), “Anxiety” (Doechii), “WILDFLOWER” (Billie Eilish), “Abracadabra” (Lady Gaga), “Luther” (Kendrick Lamar ft. SZA), and “Apt.” (Rosé & Bruno Mars). “Golden” from K-Pop Demon Hunters appears in Song of the Year and “The Subway” (Chappell Roan) in Record of the Year.

Prediction: The likely winner is either Gaga’s “Abracadabra” or Kendrick’s “Luther,” both boasting strong critical and fan reception. “DtMF” is a potential dark horse as it is the biggest hit from his album, which we think will win AOTY

• Surprise: “Golden,” an animated soundtrack cut, broke through in a main songwriting category
• Snub: Ravyn Lenae’s “Love Me Not” and Kehlani’s “Folded” were passed over despite favorable public reception, chart success, and critical acclaim. What a missed opportunity for the Grammys to show the R&B category some love

Best New Artist

Nominees: Olivia Dean, KATSEYE, The Marias, Addison Rae, Sombr, Leon Thomas, Alex Warren, and Lola Young.

Prediction: Leon Thomas is the favorite due to his nominations across AOTY and R&B categories, which are usually strong indicators of a BNA win if they are nominated for general field and genre categories. Lola Young and Olivia Dean follow close behind, boosted by UK chart success. 

• Surprise: Addison Rae and KATSEYE both break through despite the Academy’s usual neglect of TikTok acts and girl groups
• Snub: Jade, Ravyn Lenae, and FLO were all overlooked. The Grammys are once again choosing to pick mainstream acts over talented artists with moderate success

Best Pop Vocal Album

Nominees: Justin Bieber (SWAG), Sabrina Carpenter (Man’s Best Friend), Miley Cyrus (Something Beautiful), Lady Gaga (MAYHEM), Teddy Swims (Pt. 2). 

Prediction: Gaga is the predicted winner, based on her track record, as she is considered a Grammy darling. Sabrina has momentum as she previously won the category last year with Short n’ Sweet, but Gaga has the edge with a big comeback to her pop roots.

• Surprise: Miley Cyrus’s inclusion recognizes her critically acclaimed project despite modest sales
• Snub: Kesha (Period) and Tate McRae (So Close to What) were omitted

Best Pop Solo Performance

Nominees: Justin Bieber “Daisies,” Sabrina Carpenter “Manchild,” Lady Gaga “Disease,” Chappell Roan “The Subway,” Lola Young “Messy.”

Prediction: “Manchild.” Its songwriting and vocal delivery hit the sweet spots of the Grammys: Fun pop song, country twang, and a very singer-songwriter type of effort. If Sabrina wins, it will mark the second time she has won this category, following her win last year with “Espresso”. “The Subway” and “Messy” are close seconds as they live in the same realm as “Manchild.” Gaga’s “Disease” may be too sonically dark and grungy to win, and “Daisies” lacks the depth of the others.

• Surprise: None
• Snub: Doja Cat’s “Jealous Type” and Tate McRae’s “Sports Car” were omitted

• Best Pop Duo/Group Performance

Nominees: Cynthia Erivo & Ariana Grande “Defying Gravity,” “Golden,” KATSEYE “Gabriela,” Rosé & Bruno Mars “Apt.,” SZA & Kendrick “30 For 30.”

Prediction: “Apt.” - a huge, catchy hit from a household name (Bruno) and a rising star (Rosé). Bruno is a Grammy's favorite and won this category last year with Lady Gaga for “Die With a Smile.” “Defying Gravity” is a close second as it's an old song that people already know and love, now revived by vocal beasts in the blockbuster hit “Wicked.” 

• Surprise: “Golden” and “Gabriela” push boundaries with animation and K-pop, respectively
• Snub: Sabrina Carpenter & Dolly Parton’s “Please Please Please” and Jennie & Doechii’s “ExtraL.”

Best R&B Song

Nominees: “Folded” (Kehlani), “Yes It Is” (Leon Thomas), “Heart of a Woman” (Summer Walker), “It Depends” (Chris Brown ft. Bryson Tiller), “Overqualified” (Durand Bernarr).

Prediction: “Folded,” which is already being hailed as a modern R&B classic and credited for bringing the genre to the forefront. Leon Thomas’s “Yes It Is” is a close second, as he is nominated for AOTY, which increases his chances. Summer Walker has been previously snubbed for her past work, but it’s nice to see the Grammys recognize her talent with “Heart of a Woman.” Although her chances are low this year, she has a big chance to snag a Grammy next year with her upcoming album.

• Surprise: Durand Bernarr gets another nod for a technically masterful vocal performance, following last year’s nomination
• Snub: None notably missing here

Best R&B Album

Nominees: Giveon (BeLoved), Coco Jones (Why Not More?), Ledisi (The Crown), Teyana Taylor (Escape Room), Leon Thomas (MUTT). 

Prediction: Thomas leads again, especially with an AOTY nomination; it’s not wild to assume his name is already carved on the award. However, Coco Jones could surprise us and snatch this award with her debut album (Why Not More?).

• Surprise: Teyana Taylor’s comeback after a long break was recognized
• Snub: SZA’s Lana (SOS Deluxe) was surprisingly left out, despite the standard being heavily nominated, including an AOTY nom

Best Rap Album

Nominees: Clipse (Let God Sort Em Out), GloRilla (Glorious), JID (God Does Like Ugly), Kendrick Lamar (GNX), Tyler, the Creator (Chromakopia). 

Prediction: Kendrick is likely to win – his fourth Rap Album Grammy would maintain a perfect track record. Tyler is a strong challenger as he also won every time he was nominated in the category. Therefore, one of them will break a winning streak, while the other will continue it.

• Surprise: GloRilla enters the big leagues with her first major album nod
• Snub: Megan Thee Stallion (Act II), Playboi Carti (I Am Music), and Mac Miller (Ballonnerism) didn’t make the ballot

Best Rap Performance

Nominees: Cardi B “Outside,” Clipse ft. Kendrick & Pharrell “Chains & Whips,” Doechii “Anxiety,” Kendrick Lamar ft. Lefty Gunplay “tv off,” Tyler, the Creator “Darling, I.” 

Prediction: Kendrick’s “tv off” is the pick, one of his more popular songs off (GNX). He could have submitted “Squabble Up” and still have a strong chance at winning. The rest of the field is strong but less impactful in comparison.

• Surprise: None
• Snub: Megan Thee Stallion’s “Bigger in Texas,” Drake’s “Nokia,” and Playboi Carti’s “EVIL J0RDAN” missed out despite being major rap hits 

Catch the 2026 Grammy Awards live on Sunday, February 1. Whether you're watching for the performances, the speeches, or the shock wins, it’s the rare night the music industry pauses to look at itself—and we all get to judge the reflection.

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