Are We Innovating Enough? A Look Back at 1900s Predictions
Published: November 14th, 2024.
In the early 1900s, artists like Jean-Marc Côté in France and the German chocolate brand Hildebrand were hired to imagine the world in 2000. They created whimsical, colorful drawings featuring firefighters with wings, whale-powered buses, and underwater croquet. To us, these ideas seem ridiculous, almost laughable. But in their time, these artists had just emerged from the Industrial Revolution—an era that transformed the world. With machines reshaping daily life, it made sense that they’d imagine a future full of radical, even absurd, technological advancements.
Interestingly, not all these visions were completely wrong. Concepts like video calls, mobile homes, and basic automation have become part of our lives, though perhaps in less dramatic forms. So, why did people have such a bold vision for the future back then, and do we still have that same outlook? Are we innovating more slowly today, or is it just a shift in how and where progress happens?
Since 2000, many technological advancements have been about enhancing what already exists rather than inventing something completely new. Take the iPhone as an example. When it first launched in 2007, it was groundbreaking; a device that combined a phone, internet browser, and media player was revolutionary. However, each new version has enhanced the existing model with better cameras, faster processors, and incremental changes. Some analysts believe this trend reflects a growing “safe” approach to innovation, where companies prioritize profits over bold, untested ideas. Why risk investing in something new when you can keep enhancing a proven product and still make a profit?
This trend toward improvement over invention is even more pronounced in other industries. Television technology, for example, has seen plenty of upgrades, moving from standard to ultra-high definition and OLED screens. But fundamentally, a TV is still a TV, just like a smartphone. The big, groundbreaking ideas that reshape society seem rarer, and some argue it’s because companies are less willing to take risks in a market that rewards steady profit.
On the other hand, maybe innovation isn’t truly slowing down; it's just taking different forms. Some developments, like artificial intelligence and medical breakthroughs, have been in progress for decades but are only now beginning to affect our daily lives. AI research started in the 1950s, yet only in recent years have we seen it become mainstream, integrated into devices and applications we use daily. Self-driving cars and voice assistance are the products of decades of behind-the-scenes work, now finding a way into our lives. In this view, innovation hasn’t stalled; it’s just working in ways that aren’t visible, focusing on more complex technologies that require years to develop fully before they become a part of everyday life.
Another perspective is that the impact of innovation may be harder to see today because we’re no longer in the early stages of rapid technological adoption. When electricity or automobiles first emerged, the changes to daily life were almost immediate and obvious. Our innovations build on decades of established technology so that the shifts may feel less dramatic. We don’t necessarily see the everyday impact of quantum computing or biotechnology breakthroughs, but these fields are advancing quickly and may soon bring new changes we can’t predict.
Looking back at those early visions of the year 2000 reminds us that progress doesn’t always turn out the way we imagine. Those artists pictured a future loud and full of spectacle. Today’s world might not have flying firefighters or whale buses, but innovation is still alive and kicking, sometimes in ways that aren’t as flashy but still impactful.
As we look to the next century, there’s a good chance that our predictions will be just as off-the-mark as theirs. Innovation will keep breaking through, maybe not with big, dramatic leaps but in smaller, unexpected ways. Whether we keep building on what we have or invent something new, progress isn’t slowing down.