Wicked Leads a Huge BO Weekend: An Analysis
Published On: November 24th, 2024
This weekend before Thanksgiving saw an exciting box office duel between two blockbuster releases: Wicked, the highly anticipated adaptation of the beloved Broadway musical, and Gladiator II, Ridley Scott’s sequel to the Academy Award-winning epic. Both films drew large audiences, but their distinct tones, target demographics, and production challenges shaped their trajectories in unique ways. Here’s a closer look at the numbers, factors driving success, and the broader implications for the film industry.
Wicked soared to the top of the box office, earning an estimated $117 million over the weekend, making it the third-largest domestic opening of 2024, trailing only Deadpool & Wolverine and Inside Out 2. The film grossed $46.7 million on its opening day, setting a record for the highest opening day for a musical film in a decade. Early screenings contributed significantly, with over $7.9 million generated from Monday and Wednesday previews.
A perfect storm of factors seemed to have propelled Wicked’s success:
- Recognizable IP but not a sequel: The Broadway musical’s enduring popularity and a fan base cultivated over two decades ensured strong pre-sales. Conversely, it may have helped that it was not a sequel to a tired, formulaic brand
- Star power and talent: Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande’s performances drew both acclaim and curiosity, bolstered by director Jon M. Chu’s vibrant vision
- Hype with restraint: The production struck a balance between massive promotion and keeping key story elements understated, including its status as a “Part 1” adaptation
- Generational appeal: Families flocked to theaters, with parents introducing a new generation to the magical land of Oz
However, Wicked wasn’t without controversy. Cynthia Erivo’s criticism of a fan-made poster ignited online debates about the boundaries between creative homage and artist sensitivities. While some viewed Erivo’s response as an overreaction, her later acknowledgment of the “human moment” helped defuse tensions. Notably, this episode didn’t appear to deter ticket sales, underscoring the resilience of the Wicked brand.
Gladiator II: A strong contender
Gladiator II secured the second spot, earning $60 million domestically in its opening weekend—a record for director Ridley Scott and Denzel Washington. Internationally, the film has already crossed the $130 million mark, suggesting it could surpass $200 million globally by the end of the weekend. With a production budget of $250 million, its success will hinge on sustained performance through the holiday season.
The film faced a unique challenge: living up to the legacy of its predecessor. While Gladiator II received solid reviews, its CinemaScore of “B” fell short of the original film’s “A,” reflecting mixed reactions from audiences. Critics praised standout performances by Washington and Paul Mescal but noted a convoluted plot that diluted the sequel’s emotional impact. The movie’s runtime of 2 hours and 28 minutes also posed scheduling challenges compared to shorter competitors like Wicked.
Did “Glicked” help or hinder?
Dubbed “Glicked,” the simultaneous release of Wicked and Gladiator II evoked comparisons to last year’s “Barbenheimer” phenomenon. While both films benefited from heightened cultural buzz, the matchup may have disadvantaged Gladiator II. As a darker, R-rated epic, it struggled to compete with the more broadly appealing Wicked for family audiences and prime theater slots.
Industry experts are divided on whether Gladiator II might have fared better with a standalone release. The packed Thanksgiving calendar, with upcoming competition from Moana 2, could also dilute its long-term performance.
Comparing the numbers and industry trends
This weekend’s combined box office earnings of over $177 million marked one of the strongest weekends of 2024, signaling a rebound in theatrical attendance. While Wicked dominated the domestic market, Gladiator II found a stronger foothold internationally, hinting at divergent strategies for blockbusters in the post-pandemic era.
Wicked's success also reinforced the viability of musical adaptations, a genre often considered risky in Hollywood. Its performance could pave the way for more Broadway-to-film projects. Conversely, Gladiator II highlighted the challenges of crafting sequels to iconic films, particularly when attempting to balance fan expectations with creative evolution.
The contrasting trajectories of Wicked and Gladiator II illustrate the complexities of modern blockbuster filmmaking. While Wicked leveraged nostalgia and universal appeal to achieve record-breaking success, Gladiator II navigated the double-edged sword of its predecessor’s legacy. Both films demonstrated the enduring power of the cinematic experience, a promising sign for an industry eager to recapture its pre-pandemic momentum. Whether the “Glicked” phenomenon becomes a new template for strategic releases or a one-time anomaly remains to be seen.