Oscars 2026 Predictions: Who Leads After Awards Season?

Best Picture Prediction

Nominees:

• Bugonia
• F1
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners
• Train Dreams

Here’s the precursor split. At the Golden Globes, “Hamnet” won Best Motion Picture, Drama, while “One Battle After Another” won Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy. 

At BAFTA, “One Battle After Another” took Best Film.

And at the Actor Awards, “Sinners” won Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture, the actors’ closest equivalent to Best Picture. 

So why the leaning towards “One Battle After Another”? It has the cleanest two-win résumé across BAFTA and the Globes, and it’s sitting right in the Oscar Best Picture lineup. The reason not to get too comfy is the Actor Awards.

The Associated Press notes that the ensemble winner has matched the eventual Best Picture Oscar winner 15 times in the past 31 years, meaning “Sinners” is a serious spoiler, not a long shot. 

Prediction: “One Battle After Another” wins Best Picture, with “Sinners” as the upset you can actually see happening. 

Best Actor Prediction

Nominees:

• Timothée Chalamet — Marty Supreme
• Leonardo DiCaprio — One Battle After Another
• Ethan Hawke — Blue Moon
• Michael B. Jordan — Sinners
• Wagner Moura — The Secret Agent

The lead-actor precursors could not agree more this year. Timothée Chalamet won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy (for Marty Supreme). Wagner Moura won the Golden Globe for Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama (for The Secret Agent). 

BAFTA didn’t help as a tiebreaker for the Oscar ballot: it awarded Leading Actor to Robert Aramayo for I Swear, and he isn’t nominated for Best Actor at the Oscars. 

Then the Actor Awards dropped the most “industry-facing” flag we have, with Jordan winning Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role for “Sinners.” 

In a season where the Globes split and BAFTA zigged elsewhere, that actors-only win reads like the sharpest indicator.

Prediction: Michael B. Jordan wins Best Actor. 

Best Actress Prediction

Nominees:

Jessie Buckley — Hamnet
Rose Byrne — If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson — Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve — Sentimental Value
Emma Stone — Bugonia

This is the closest thing to a sweep in the five marquee categories. Buckley won the Golden Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama (“Hamnet”), won BAFTA Leading Actress, and won the Actor Award for Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role. 

Rose Byrne did take the Globe for Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy (for If I Had Legs I'd Kick You), and she’s an Oscar nominee. But three-for-three across these precursors is a pretty loud message. 

Prediction: Jessie Buckley wins Best Actress. 

Best Supporting Actor Prediction

Nominees:

Benicio del Toro — One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi — Frankenstein
Delroy Lindo — Sinners
Sean Penn — One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård — Sentimental Value

Two of the three big signposts point the same way. Penn won the BAFTA Supporting Actor for “One Battle After Another” and won the Actor Award for Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role. 

The Golden Globes crowned Stellan Skarsgård for Supporting Actor (“Sentimental Value”), which keeps the race from being a coronation. 

But with BAFTA plus Actor Awards, Penn has the strongest combo heading into Oscar night.

Prediction: Sean Penn wins Best Supporting Actor. 

Best Supporting Actress Prediction

Nominees:

• Elle Fanning — Sentimental Value
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas — Sentimental Value
• Amy Madigan — Weapons
• Wunmi Mosaku — Sinners
• Teyana Taylor — One Battle After Another

If you want one category that can flip at the last second, it’s this one. The three precursors split perfectly: Teyana Taylor won the Golden Globe (for “One Battle After Another”), Wunmi Mosaku won the BAFTA (for “Sinners”), and Madigan won the Actor Award (for Weapons). 

We predict it is Madigan for one reason: in a split-precursor year, the Actor Awards are the most direct “actors picked this performance” signal. The counterargument is real, too. Taylor and Mosaku are tied to films that are deep in the Best Picture conversation, while “Weapons” is not a Best Picture nominee. 

Prediction: Amy Madigan wins Best Supporting Actress, but consider this a warning label, not a lock.

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