Gold Prices Rise as Warsh Comments Cool Rate-Hike Bets
Gold prices rose on Monday, October 19, 2026, as cheaper oil eased inflation worries. For anyone holding gold or thinking about buying, it was a steadier start to the week. Spot gold gained 0.3% to $4,175.60 per ounce early in the Asian session, and U.S. gold futures for December delivery climbed 0.4% to $4,196.40.
Gold had fallen 0.7% the week before, after a hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation report raised the chances of another Federal Reserve rate hike and pushed the dollar higher. That combination usually hurts gold, because higher rates make savings accounts, CDs, and bonds more attractive than a metal that pays no interest.
Oil prices fell on Monday after President Donald Trump waived sanctions and tariffs on Russia, a move that could bring more Russian fuel exports to market. Energy prices have been pushing inflation up since the U.S.-Iran conflict started in late February, so lower crude also eases some of the pressure on the Fed to keep raising rates.
“The metal is responding positively to the softer tone in oil prices,” said Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade. In his view, a longer slide in oil or a clear drop in Treasury yields would be the biggest boost for gold in the near term, since either would ease concerns about inflation and interest rates.
Traders scaled back bets on an October rate hike after recent comments from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, which markets read as support for a pause at next week’s policy meeting. The odds of a quarter-point hike this month are now below one in five, but a December increase is still the expected outcome. The CME FedWatch Tool puts those odds at 92%.
A December hike would likely make credit card APRs, home equity lines of credit, and other variable-rate debt more expensive going into the new year. Anyone carrying a balance may want to pay it down or lock in a fixed rate before then. Savers are in a better position, since high-yield savings accounts and CDs should keep paying strong returns while rates stay elevated.
U.S. import prices rose more than expected in September, driven by higher energy costs and a range of other goods. That points to the Middle East conflict still feeding costs that eventually show up on store shelves and at the gas pump. Investors are now waiting for the upcoming personal consumption expenditures (PCE) report, the inflation measure the Fed uses for its 2% target.
Gold has stayed above $4,000 an ounce since August, supported by its role as a safe haven during periods of uncertainty. It is still down about a fifth since the U.S.-Iran conflict began, after a war-driven selloff pushed it into bear market territory earlier this year. Long-term buyers can get in at lower prices than at the start of 2026, though prices could still fall further.
Silver rose 0.6% to $57.33, and platinum and palladium also gained. The dollar barely moved after slipping 0.3% last week, which helped support metals priced in U.S. currency.
Gold coins, bars, ETFs, and gold IRAs will likely keep tracking oil prices and next week’s Fed decision. Cheaper crude and a patient Fed would support prices, while another inflation surprise could stall the recovery. In the meantime, it’s worth reviewing any variable-rate debt and checking what your savings are earning, since the rate outlook affects those accounts as much as it affects gold.
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